Bye Bye, Rudy

Odds are against America's Mayor tonite.

Was a time I thought Rudy might have been the most electable guy in the Republican field. (Note that I didn't say he was the guy I would vote for, but he was the most electable). Truth be told, he's probably still the most electable in a general election, at least against Hillary. Obama he'd have a harder time with, I think.

At any rate, there are several scenarios that could come out of Florida, not just for Rudy, but for the Republican field. Since I suck at predictions, I won't tell you which I think is most likely. You'll just have to guess.

• Under scenario #1, Rudy wins the Florida primary. The momentum carries him all the way to the Convention. Alternatively, there is no momentum and he fizzles on Super Tuesday, leaving Mitt or John at the top of the delegate count.
• Under scenario #2, Mitt takes it. This is pretty much the nail in the coffin for the rest of the field; If Mitt takes Florida, he probably takes Super Tuesday as well.
• Under scenario #3, Huck makes a comeback. We have a 3-way race, maybe decided on Super Tuesday, maybe later. Maybe third round of balloting at the Convention.
• Under scenario #4, John picks it up. It's a 2-man race, with Mitt in the lead. John could easily pass Mitt on Super Tuesday.
• Under scenario #5, Fred Thompson remembers who the hell Terry Schaivo was, makes a Santa Clause/Superman tour of the state and wins it as the "hands down" candidate.

Sorry, couldn't help it. I had to put something light in there. No way Huck's coming back. Some things just ain't possible.

Fred Drops Out

Read all about it. No surprise here, but I'm sad to see it happen. Hindsight being what it is, I suppose it's the right time to reflect a bit about Fred's candidacy, and how it went sour. Here are the things that could have been done differently:

• Got in earlier. July 4 would have been ideal, and may have given him more momentum. September was, in retrospect, definitely too late.
• Debated more. Fred performed well in the debates; it was a mistake to announce on Jay Leno during a debate that he could have won.
• Media management. Fred's campaign had no idea how to handle media criticisms. When even Fox News is accusing you of being a lazy candidate, you need some serious PR help to disprove them.
• Created a winning delegate scenario. Fred needed to be able to focus on the states where he could win. He could have done what Rudy is doing for Florida, and taken Iowa South Carolina. Instead of focusing on a place he could win, he seemed all over the map.
• Been easier on James Dobson. True, the Focus on the Family founder's initial criticisms of Thompson's faith was uncalled for, and unsound; but Fred could and should have been conciliatory, rather than standoffish. This put off a good number of evangelical supporters, driving them over to Huck.
• Smartened his message. His slogans were a bit trite. I think the campaign underestimated the intelligence of the Republican base.

Just my thoughts, informed by the light of hindsight.

Three-Ways aren't always good

Just a quick update from South Carolina:

Looks like McCain will narrowly take it over a close second Huck. Looks like we forgot about the 25% of voters in South Carolina that are veterans, as it seemed they tracked extremely high for McCain.

While I'm here, let me say this: I thank John McCain for his service. America owes him a great debt that we can only repay by insuring future generations of Americans grasp the freedom for which he was imprisoned.

Having said that, the fact remains that, while a veteran may be emotionally connected to McCain, it doesn't mean he'd be a good president. It's not that much different than a woman who votes for Hillary, or an African American who votes for Obama. Being able to relate to a candidate does not qualify them, and voting on that basis is plain foolish.

Aw hell, at least Rudy's way down at the bottom. Still, I'd prefer him to McCain. And Mitt may actually be in trouble here if he can't make some deeper progress in the other southern states.

Goodnight, Fred, we hardly knew ye. If you'd have run 200 years ago, you'd have won in a landslide.

Well, I suppose that's it, then.

Fred managed to hit higher than Rudy, but lower than Ron.

The big surprise yesterday, for me, was the Mitt victory over John McCain. Let me tell you why I was certain McCain would win.

• In 2000, when McCain was running a primary campaign against George W. Bush, he won Michigan handily, thanks to folks like my democrat boss who really liked the guy. I assumed that would carry him.
• McCain's campaign actively sought independent and even Democrat voters in the Michigan primary (a move, by the way, which pisses me off to no end; MY party, not yours. I don't pretend to be a Democrat, you shouldn't pretend to be a Republican.)
• My precinct is around 10-1 in Democratic favor. Yesterday, at least from the pages I could see, at least 3 Republican ballots were passed out for every 1 Democrat ballot. Even if the Dems stayed home, that's just shenanigans.

Fortunately, my precinct wasn't especially representative of the state. Mitt, my #2 man trounced McCain handily, and is creeping closer to the magic number of 1,191..

Unless Fred can turn it around in SC, or Rudy in FL, it is looking like Romney will be the Republican candidate. There is a scenario in which McCain places 3rd in Florida and then makes a big bang on Super Tuesday, but even if that happens it is likely that the delegate count will be close come July. Same thing if Huck handily wins SC, and then begins to carry the rest of the South. Still, things are looking good for Mitt right now.

The Michigan Republican Primary, Conclusions

As promised, let's take a look at the remainder of the Republican field for tomorrow:

There are, of course, Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo. These guys are all right in terms of policy, but have run terrible campaigns, and are almost completely unelectable due to their lack of personality. Normally, a lack of personality wouldn't be enough to turn me off of a candidate, but add to this the fact that they have been ignored and shunned by both the media and the Republican establishment, and these boys don't have a snowball's chance in hell.

That leaves me with, of course, Fred Thompson. As you can see from the archive, I'm a Thompson supporter, and have been for a long time. Yeah, his campaign has been poorly run. Yes, he's been portrayed as not having enough "fire in the belly." But, in some ways, that's just what I want in a president: someone who had to be convinced to take the job, and for whom his personal success doesn't depend on him becoming president. I want a president who's not a career politician, who can go back home to Mount Vernon and make booze. On policy, he's almost dead on, and is the first viable candidate since Reagan to speak convincingly about federalism.

Is Thompson electable? Well, he was. I think he might still be. He won't win Michigan, partly because he hasn't had the resources to campaign here, but also because our Dems will all be voting for McCain once they figure out Hillary is the only one on their ballots. Still, if Thompson can beat out Huck in South Carolina, he may have a shot at capturing much of the rest of the South. Granted, it's a very slim scenario, and I certainly wouldn't take bets that it will happen. But in 1980 Reagan lost Iowa, swept the south, and lost 5 more primaries on the way to the convention. If there was indeed a Reagan political miracle, isn't it all right to hope for one for Thompson?

So, whether you are from Michigan or not, get out there and show Fred some love!

Yabba Dabba (Friggin) Do!!!

My good friend Phil believes that, if there is a Republican who can beat out Hillary, it is Fred Thompson. He thinks that Rudy's too moderate to energize the Republican base, and that Romney is still a moderate deep down as well, despite the rhetoric. McCain, well, he's just a couple deuces short of a full deck.

But Fred Thompson, more than anyone in the field, has a folksy, populist, Reagan-like appeal. Thompson presents well on TV, and Arthur Branch is embedded in many of our minds in the same way that "The Gipper" was in a former generation. Not only that, Thompson has the wherewithal to look Michael Moore in the eye, tell him he's nuts, and then blow a big puff of smoke in his face. That, my friends, is the testicular fortitude that a Republican presidential candidate needs to have.

Now, all of the big conservative radio guys have held off of a full endorsement of a particular candidate. My bet is that, as we get closer to this thing, that's going to change. Thompson is the kind of candidate that someone like a Sean Hannity or even a Rush Limbaugh can get behind, I believe.

Reagan said it once, "How can a president not be an actor?" I can see Fred saying that. Reagan also said, "Government does not solve problems; it subsidizes them." I can see Fred saying that, too.

It is looking like Fred is finally going to declare, quite fittingly, on Independence Day. Let Freedom Ring!

Three weeks in hiding

I decided that it was time to take some time away from the political commentary scene for a bit. I was getting way too frustrated with way too many things. And, since Rosie decided to leave the View, I felt like my work was, at least for a little while, done ;)

Anyways, I've got to admit that I'm finally getting a bit excited about 2008. While my Michigan heritage wants me to support Romney for the GOP, and while my emotional knee-jerk reaction is to support Rudy for his post-9/11 spirit, I can't help but be frustrated with these guys. Romney's record is more center than it is right, and that's just frustrating. Rudy is out there somewhere near the loony left on the social issues. And McCain, well, he just seems to be out there somewhere all around. Certainly I can't vote for the guy who came up with Campaign Finance Reform. Like many conservatives in the GOP, I'm frustrated. On top of that, I'm not sure any of these guys can really beat Hillary.

But I bet this guy can. Who else in the Republican field has the audacity to blow smoke in the face of Michael Moore, other than Fred Thompson? Even Bush, for all the suggestions by his enemies that he's just a cowboy, had a relatively tame reaction to Moore's Farenheit 9/11. But this just took balls. Big ones. The kind that we need our president to have in order to stand up to radical Islam, for example. While I like Newt, and would be happy to see him as president, I think Fred Thompson may be the last, best hope for both conservatism and for the GOP.