No way. Way!

This has got to be, by far, the most interesting primary season that I can recall. Looks like one of my predictions from yesterday was actually spot on. Of course, my Florida predictions were rather akin to a shotgun blast...

At any rate, McCain beat, not handily, but he did beat, Romney in Florida. Rudy's out, and probably going to endorse McCain. Will that hurt Romney? Probably. But, Mitt still has some things going for him, leading up to the convention:

• There are enough Western states, where Romney is likely to perform well, on Super Tuesday to catch up, or at least keep within striking distance, of McCain's delegate count.
• He has the support of a sizable majority of the "uncommitted" delegates (akin to the Democrats' SuperDelegates)
• If Huck makes it all the way to the convention, his delegates could, in theory, be sent to one column or the other, tipping the balance. My guess is that Huck is going to send them to Mitt, rather than John, because Mitt is closest to Huck on social issues.

As for the Dems, Hillary continues to shore up her delegate count, while Barack is wooing establishment Dems like Teddy into his camp. Hillary's ace in the hole has always been the SuperDelegates; Teddy's defection suggests that they may not be a lock for Hill. Still, Barack is going to have to pick up some delegates on Feb 5 if he wants to stay in this thing.

As for Super Tuesday? Hell if I know.

Bye Bye, Rudy

Odds are against America's Mayor tonite.

Was a time I thought Rudy might have been the most electable guy in the Republican field. (Note that I didn't say he was the guy I would vote for, but he was the most electable). Truth be told, he's probably still the most electable in a general election, at least against Hillary. Obama he'd have a harder time with, I think.

At any rate, there are several scenarios that could come out of Florida, not just for Rudy, but for the Republican field. Since I suck at predictions, I won't tell you which I think is most likely. You'll just have to guess.

• Under scenario #1, Rudy wins the Florida primary. The momentum carries him all the way to the Convention. Alternatively, there is no momentum and he fizzles on Super Tuesday, leaving Mitt or John at the top of the delegate count.
• Under scenario #2, Mitt takes it. This is pretty much the nail in the coffin for the rest of the field; If Mitt takes Florida, he probably takes Super Tuesday as well.
• Under scenario #3, Huck makes a comeback. We have a 3-way race, maybe decided on Super Tuesday, maybe later. Maybe third round of balloting at the Convention.
• Under scenario #4, John picks it up. It's a 2-man race, with Mitt in the lead. John could easily pass Mitt on Super Tuesday.
• Under scenario #5, Fred Thompson remembers who the hell Terry Schaivo was, makes a Santa Clause/Superman tour of the state and wins it as the "hands down" candidate.

Sorry, couldn't help it. I had to put something light in there. No way Huck's coming back. Some things just ain't possible.

McCain is NOT going to win. Not even against Hillary.

Frank Rich thinks that the combination of Hillary Clinton on the Dem ticket and John McCain on the Republican ticket means a Republican victory.

Respectfully, I must disagree with Mr. Rich. Or maybe not respectfully, we'll see how it goes. Depends on whether he starts to behave himself or not. If not, I might suggest he go back to reviewing Broadway plays. Poorly.

At any rate, Frank Rich has got to realize something: the people that want to see John McCain as the Republican candidate, primarily, aren't Republicans. They are Independents and crossover Dems. They're people like Frank Rich who have the good sense to be tired of the Clintons. But, most Republicans would rather have another candidate. Practically any other candidate.

You see, the buzz about McCain, like it was in 2000, proves something about Republicans: we aren't willing to nominate someone just because the media thinks that they could be electable. If you don't believe me, I've got two words for you: Bob Dole. The media never thought Dole was electable (he wasn't) but we put him out there anyways.

The thing is this: with the exception of defense, John McCain offers nothing different from what any of the Dems are offering. Independents and crossover Dems will vote for McCain in the primary, because 1) they have no scruples, and 2) because they know that, regardless of which Democrat is nominated, they are probably going to be OK.

McCain vs. Hillary, or McCain vs. any Dem, is a loss for McCain, no matter how you slice it. You see, he isn't going to win in a general election because those Independents and crossover Dems aren't going to vote McCain in the general; they're voting Democratic. Add to this the fact that the Republican base is not going to get any more fired up about McCain than it got for Bob Dole, and you've got a solid Dem victory.

Yeah, Romney, Giuliani and Huck all have their problems in terms of electability. Fact is, so did Reagan. We need to be less concerned about electability, and more concerned about ideas and competence. If we put forward the candidate that has the best ideas for America, and that is competent to implement them, we've got a shot at winning.

The Michigan Republican Primary

Well, I have to say... seven months has been too long. But, I don't feel bad about it; the thing about being a conservative is that, for the most part, I'm not interested in what government is doing. In fact, the less it does, the better. I've got better things to do, like raise my kids, work for a living, and play Dungeons and Dragons every Saturday. I think that's probably why Libertarians do so bad at the polls; most of the folks that share their views believe that government should have less power, and folks are always more motivated to gain power than to give it up.

Anyways, the Michigan Primary is just days away, and I've got some thoughts I'd like to share. Each day over this weekend, I'm going to talk about the Republican candidates, and I will finish off on Monday with a discussion of my pick. Reading my previous blog entries you might be able to guess who it is, but I think it is still a worthy exercise.

Today, let me start with Huckabee. I want to like Mike, I do. Heck, if nothing else, I'm scared that if I don't vote Huck that Chuck will come and kick my ass. In addition, I like his conservative social message. I'm completely OK with a Baptist pastor as president. I greatly admire his weight loss story, as I'm working on my own right now. Here's what I don't like:

• The Arkansas tax record. Yeah, I know, even Reagan raised taxes in California as governor. Still, it makes me wary.
• Golden Rule foreign policy. The golden rule is a rule about individuals, not nations. It's appeasement foreign policy cloaked in biblical rhetoric.
• Immigration. He just doesn't seem to know where he's going with it.
• In a general election, the anti-Christian left would eat him alive.

While I'm at it, I may as well do Ron Paul. I like everything about Ron Paul, save one big issue: the war. Paul is short-sighted here; there is indeed a constitutional basis for what we're doing in Iraq and Afghanistan. If Paul would come out in support of the war on terror, he'd be my candidate. I know its one issue, but its a big one for me. In addition, like most libertarians, Paul needs to recognize Friedman's ideas about transition, and that these unconstitutional programs need to be phased out rather than shut off. But, I could live with that if I had to; the foreign policy thing is too overshadowing.